Semiconductors lift the Nasdaq 100 after CoreWeave's results

Key takeaways

• Semiconductors lift the NQ: at 13:14 Paris time, the NQ is up 1.87% at 28,356, versus +0.85% for the ES and +0.14% for the YM, after results from CoreWeave (CRWV), an index member and a major buyer of Nvidia GPUs, which jumps 17% in premarket.
• Nvidia (NVDA), AMD and Micron (MU), 14.4% of the index combined, gain 3.7% to 6.7% in premarket and contribute about 210 of the 521 points gained by the NQ; Nvidia is rebounding after a 9.5% drop over two sessions.
• What the market is pricing in: according to CME FedWatch, a 25 bp hike on December 9 is priced at 88.8% and a 50 bp hike at 11.2%, versus zero a week ago. The VXN, at 28.57, remains 9 points above the VIX.
• The Nasdaq 100 is in a correction, 11.2% below its October 6 record close, and the SOX 31.7% below its own record of June 22.
• Veterans Day: bond market closed, stocks open; the 10-year stays at its Tuesday close of 4.98%.

Overnight and Europe

Prior session (Tuesday, November 10). The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.60% to 27,740.79 after a hotter-than-expected October CPI (+0.4% month over month, +0.3% excluding food and energy), trading between 27,421.18 and 27,990.34: it finished 320 points above its low and ended a two-session winning streak. Nvidia (−5.47% to $168.89) took off about 0.39 percentage point, or about 109 of the 167 points lost, and Microsoft (MSFT, −2.20%) about 40; Broadcom (AVGO, +3.91%) gave back about 27. The equal-weight QQEW lost 0.72%, as much as the index: the decline was broad across tech. The SOX fell only 0.35% to 9,998.33. The Nasdaq 100 remains 11.2% below its record close of 31,224.47 on October 6, and the SOX 31.7% below its record of 14,634.72 on June 22, in bear-market territory.

Last night and this morning. Costco (COST) announced a special dividend of $30 per share, about $13.3 billion payable December 4, and a $4 billion share buyback (+0.2% in premarket). Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its top-picks list this morning.

Asia (closes). The Taiex gained 3.62% to 44,257.15 and the Kospi 2.60% to 5,375.36, lifted by semiconductors, and the Nikkei 1.31% to 61,248.59; the Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 24,296.22, and Shanghai rose 0.46% to 3,680.64.

Europe. At 13:09, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.61% at 6,366.36, the DAX 0.70% at 26,531.45 and the CAC 40 0.29% at 8,302.17; technology (+2.0%) leads the Stoxx 600.

US futures. At 13:14, the NQ is at 28,356 (+520.75 points, +1.87% from the 27,835.25 settlement), between 27,847.75 and 28,393 since the reopen; ES 7,608.25 (+0.85%), YM 52,388 (+0.14%), Russell 2000 2,850.2 (+0.75%). In premarket at 13:24: Micron +6.7%, Intel (INTC) +6.6%, Arm (ARM) +6.6%, AMD +6.5%, Lam Research (LRCX) +6.1%, Applied Materials (AMAT) +5.9%, Broadcom +4.3%, ASML (ASML) +3.8%, Nvidia +3.7% at $175.05: these nine semiconductor stocks contribute about 320 points, and Nebius (NBIS), a CoreWeave competitor, gains 14.1%; Apple (AAPL), the largest weight (8.5%), is down 0.7%, or about 16 points.

Today's calendar

No medium- or high-impact US data and no Fed speakers are scheduled. EIA oil inventories are pushed back to Thursday; API data showed a 9 million barrel build for the week ended November 6. OPEC publishes its monthly report during the day: Brent below $91.48 would ease long-term rates, while above $93.60 it would push inflation expectations higher.

Rest of the week.

A core PPI above 0.3% would lift the probability of 50 bp and weigh on the duration of growth stocks; at 0.2% or less, it would bring relief to the 2-year and the NQ.

Fed and rates

Last decision. On October 28, after the 25 bp hike of September 16, the FOMC chaired by Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.75–4.00% by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook, governor, and Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, calling for another 25 bp hike. Next meeting December 8–9.

After the CPI. Christopher Waller, governor, is leaning toward 25 bp in December and believes 50 bp should be considered if core came in "around 0.3% or higher": that is the number that was released. Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed (voter), calls for "at least two" 25 bp hikes; Anna Paulson, president of the Philadelphia Fed (voter), for "further gradual tightening." Michelle Bowman, Fed vice chair for supervision, estimates October core PCE at 3.3%.

Calendar. No officials speak today. Thursday: Beth Hammack (voter, 15:00), Michael Barr, governor (16:00), Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed (17:15), Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed (19:10), Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed (19:30), and John Williams, president of the New York Fed and FOMC vice chair (00:30 overnight). Friday: Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed (15:10), Michelle Bowman (16:50), Mary Daly (18:00) and Philip Jefferson, Fed vice chair (01:00 overnight).

Probabilities. According to CME FedWatch, a 25 bp hike on December 9 is priced at 88.8% and a 50 bp hike at 11.2%, with no hold priced in anymore; a week ago, the 25 bp hike stood at around 72% and the 50 bp hike at zero.

Yields. At Tuesday's close, the 2-year was at 4.73% (+17 bp), the 10-year at 4.98% (+10 bp) and the 30-year at 5.35% (+9 bp); the 2s10s spread narrowed to 25 bp from 32 bp, a bear flattening. The 10-year auction ($42 billion) cleared at 5.020%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 versus 2.77 in October.

Rates and oil. On Tuesday, the 2-year rose 17 bp despite a 1.17% drop in Brent: the market is reading core inflation, not energy; this morning's Brent rebound mainly threatens long-term rates.

Earnings

For the S&P 500, according to FactSet (November 6), 88% of companies have reported their third quarter, with 84% beating the EPS consensus estimate, for earnings growth of 31.4%, led in particular by technology. No other Nasdaq 100 company has reported since Tuesday's close, and none reports tonight.

Reported

• CoreWeave beats across the board and raises its 2026 revenue range ($12.4 to $13.2 billion in August). Its backlog reaches $132.5 billion versus $104 billion at the end of June, and its planned capital spending of $37 to $39 billion in 2026 supports chip demand. CoreWeave itself adds only about 5 points to the NQ: the effect runs through Nebius (+14%) and through chip and equipment suppliers (+3.7% to +6.7%).

Upcoming

Geopolitics and conflicts

US–China: Nvidia, export controls and the APEC summit

• Latest development. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, has acknowledged an affair with a person suspected of spying for China; on Tuesday, the independent directors hired the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to investigate whether company secrets or national security were compromised, which the board says it has "no reason to believe." Senators Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) and Jim Banks (Republican) are pushing the AI Overwatch Act, which would allow Congress to block chip exports to China. Donald Trump is due to meet Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19.
• Indicator. Nvidia has lost 9.5% over two sessions and more than 25% since October 2.
• Channel and tipping points. Each percentage point of Nvidia is worth nearly 19 Nasdaq 100 index points, and semiconductors weigh about 27% of the index. Tighter controls or a setback in Shenzhen would hit these stocks first; an incident-free summit and an investigation with no adverse findings before the November 17 results would extend the rebound.

US–Iran: the Strait of Hormuz

• Latest development. On Tuesday in Paris, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, prime minister of Qatar, told G7 foreign ministers that Doha had secured "at least two weeks" for diplomacy before possible US strikes, according to diplomatic sources cited by the Jerusalem Post. Donald Trump had called new strikes "quite unlikely" on Monday, with the blockade kept in place; Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, denies any negotiations.
• Indicator. According to Kpler, cited by CNN, Hormuz flows ran at about 70% of their prewar level last week; according to the Washington Institute, 10 vessels have been attacked since the start of November, after a record 37 in October.
• Channel and tipping points. Inflation expectations and long-term rates. Progress toward lifting the blockade would send Brent below $89.15 (Tuesday's low) and ease rates, helping growth stocks; new attacks would push it above $93.60, with long-term rates rising.

Oil and commodities

• Brent (January): $93.19 at 13:14, +1.86% from the $91.49 settlement (−1.17% on Tuesday), between $91.48 and $93.60 since midnight; on Tuesday, it had dropped to $89.15. WTI (December): $87.23, +1.38%, settlement at $86.04.
• Drivers: attacks in Hormuz and Iran's denial of talks, against a 9 million barrel build in US crude inventories according to the API.
• Natural gas: $3.324 (+0.85%). Gold: $4,053.50 an ounce (+0.58%).
• Impact on the NQ: Brent above $93.60 would add to the CPI in pushing long-term rates higher, at the expense of growth-stock valuations; below $91.48, it would revive the disinflation argument.

Dollar and volatility

• FX: at 13:23, the DXY is up 0.28% at 102.52, EUR/USD is down 0.23% at 1.1142 and USD/JPY is up 0.29% at 159.17.
• Volatility: the VXN closed Tuesday at 28.57 (−0.40 point), after a high of 30.22; the VIX is at 18.60 at 13:09 (−0.86 point), with the curve in contango (3-month VIX at 20.64).
• Implied moves: according to Saxo, options price about 0.65% for the S&P 500 for the session and 1.21% through Friday's PPI; the VXN corresponds to about 1.8% per session for the Nasdaq 100, or nearly 500 points.
• Sentiment: a return of risk appetite concentrated in semiconductors, with the YM up only 0.14%. A VXN back above 30.22 (Tuesday's high) would signal renewed hedging in tech; a VIX below 18.47 (today's low) would confirm the easing.

What to watch in today's session

• 15:30, open: buy-side imbalance expected in Nvidia, AMD and Micron, about 210 NQ points combined. Nasdaq 100 reference levels: 27,907.63 (Monday's close), 27,990.34 (Tuesday's high) and 28,025.77 (Monday's high) above; 27,740.79 (Tuesday's close) and 27,421.18 (Tuesday's low) below. On the NQ: 28,393 (overnight high), 28,014.50 (Monday's settlement), 27,847.75 (overnight low).
• Breadth: a QQEW and a Russell 2000 following the NQ would confirm a broad rebound; a SOX above +4% with a lagging QQEW would signal a rally concentrated in a handful of chip stocks.
• Liquidity and rates: cash bond market and banks closed, volume likely thin; the rate signal runs through the 10-year note future (ZN, −0.18% this morning), where a move below 106, its low of the day, would weigh on the NQ first. Brent above $93.60 would work in the same direction.
• After 22:00: no Nasdaq 100 company reports; futures trade in the electronic session until 23:00, then from the midnight reopen. Thursday: Nebius before the open, jobless claims at 14:30 (195,000 expected).

Morning tone: a semiconductor rebound triggered by CoreWeave, lifting the NQ above its Monday settlement despite a 10-year near 5% and an index still in correction; Brent above $93.60, a ZN below 106 or a VXN above 30.22 would reduce it to short covering, while a QQEW following the NQ would broaden it.