Tech takes back the lead behind Nvidia and CoreWeave, bond market closed

Key takeaways

• Tech takes back the lead: at 12:52 Paris time, the ES is up 0.89% at 7,611.50 and the NQ 1.87%, versus +0.22% for the YM, after results from CoreWeave (CRWV), a major buyer of Nvidia GPUs, which jumps 15% in premarket. Tuesday's rotation out of tech is reversing.
• Nvidia (NVDA), 6.3% of the index, recovers 3.9% in premarket after a 9.5% drop over two sessions under the investigation targeting its CEO Jensen Huang; together with AMD, Micron and Broadcom, it accounts for about 40 of the 67 points gained by the ES.
• What the market is pricing in: according to CME FedWatch, a 25 bp hike on December 9 is priced at 88.8% and a 50 bp hike at 11.2%, versus zero a week ago. According to Saxo, options price an S&P 500 move of about 0.65% for the session.
• Veterans Day: bond market closed, stocks open; no major data and no Fed speakers.
• Brent rebounds 1.31% to $92.69 on new tanker attacks in Hormuz, as Qatar says it has secured "at least two weeks" for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

Overnight and Europe

Prior session (Tuesday, November 10). The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93 after a hotter-than-expected October CPI (+0.4% month over month, +0.3% excluding food and energy), trading between 7,470.43 and 7,543.92: it finished 50 points above its low and ended a two-session winning streak. Nvidia (−5.47% to $168.89) took off about 0.36 percentage point, or 27 of the 29 points lost. The equal-weight RSP lost only 0.03%, with 246 stocks up and 250 down; financials (+0.52%) and energy (+0.44%) led, while technology (−1.15%) brought up the rear. The Russell 2000 limited its loss to 0.68% and the Dow to 0.30%; the S&P 500 held above Monday's low (7,422.24) and remains 3.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 on October 6.

Last night and this morning. Costco (COST) announced a special dividend of $30 per share, about $13.3 billion payable December 4, and a $4 billion share buyback (+0.35% in premarket). Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its top-picks list this morning.

Asia (closes). The Taiex gained 3.62% to 44,257.15, the Kospi 2.60% to 5,375.36 and the Nikkei 1.31% to 61,248.59, lifted by semiconductors; the Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 24,296.22, and Shanghai rose 0.46% to 3,680.64.

Europe. At 12:47, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.62% at 6,367.15, the DAX 0.71% at 26,533.38 and the CAC 40 0.29% at 8,302.40, with technology (+2.1%) leading the Stoxx 600.

US futures. At 12:52, the ES is at 7,611.50 (+67.25 points, +0.89% from the 7,544.25 settlement), near its overnight high of 7,613 (low of 7,547.50); NQ 28,356.50 (+1.87%), YM 52,430 (+0.22%), Russell 2000 2,851.6 (+0.80%). In premarket at 13:02, in CoreWeave's wake: AMD (AMD) +7.4%, Micron (MU) +6.8%, GE Vernova (GEV) +5.1%, Oracle (ORCL) +5.0%, Broadcom (AVGO) +4.4%, Nvidia +3.9% at $175.50; Apple (AAPL), the index's largest weight (7.8%), is down 0.6%.

Today's calendar

No medium- or high-impact US data and no Fed speakers are scheduled: the cash bond market is closed, while stocks and futures trade normally. EIA oil inventories are pushed back to Thursday; API data showed a 9 million barrel build for the week ended November 6. OPEC publishes its monthly report during the day: Brent below $91.48 would ease rates, while above $93.60 it would push inflation expectations higher.

Rest of the week.

A core PPI above 0.3% would extend the run of upside surprises and lift the probability of 50 bp; at 0.2% or less, it would bring relief to the 2-year.

Fed and rates

Last decision. On October 28, after the 25 bp hike of September 16, the FOMC chaired by Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.75–4.00% by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook, governor, and Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, calling for another 25 bp hike. Next meeting December 8–9.

After the CPI. Christopher Waller, governor, is leaning toward 25 bp in December and believes 50 bp should be considered if core came in "around 0.3% or higher": that is the number that was released. Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed (voter), calls for "at least two" 25 bp hikes; Anna Paulson, president of the Philadelphia Fed (voter), for "further gradual tightening." Michelle Bowman, Fed vice chair for supervision, estimates October core PCE at 3.3%.

Calendar. No officials speak today. Thursday: Beth Hammack (voter, 15:00), Michael Barr, governor (16:00), Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed (17:15), Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed (19:10), Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed (19:30), and John Williams, president of the New York Fed and FOMC vice chair (00:30 overnight). Friday: Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed (15:10), Michelle Bowman (16:50), Mary Daly (18:00) and Philip Jefferson, Fed vice chair (01:00 overnight).

Probabilities. According to CME FedWatch, a 25 bp hike on December 9 is priced at 88.8% and a 50 bp hike at 11.2%, with no hold priced in anymore; a week ago, the 25 bp hike stood at around 72% and the 50 bp hike at zero.

Yields. At Tuesday's close, the 2-year was at 4.73% (+17 bp), the 10-year at 4.98% (+10 bp), and the 30-year at 5.35% (+9 bp); the 2s10s spread narrowed to 25 bp from 32 bp, a bear flattening. The 10-year auction ($42 billion) cleared at 5.020%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 versus 2.77 in October. The 2-year rose 17 bp despite a 1.17% drop in Brent: the market is reading core inflation, not energy.

Earnings

According to FactSet (November 6), 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported their third quarter: 84% beat the EPS consensus estimate and 74% the revenue consensus estimate, for aggregate earnings growth of 31.4%. No S&P 500 company has reported since Tuesday's close.

Reported

• CoreWeave beats across the board and raises its 2026 revenue range, which stood at $12.4 to $13.2 billion in August. Its backlog reaches $132.5 billion versus $104 billion at the end of June, and its planned capital spending of $37 to $39 billion in 2026 supports chip demand: semiconductors, sold on Tuesday, are back at the top of the index in premarket.

Upcoming

Geopolitics and conflicts

US–Iran: the Strait of Hormuz

• Latest development. On Tuesday in Paris, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, prime minister of Qatar, told G7 foreign ministers that Doha had secured "at least two weeks" for diplomacy before possible US strikes, according to diplomatic sources cited by the Jerusalem Post; disagreements center on the naval blockade, the nuclear program and frozen Iranian assets. Donald Trump had called new strikes "quite unlikely" on Monday, with the blockade kept in place; Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, denies any negotiations.
• Indicator. According to Kpler, cited by CNN, Hormuz flows ran at about 70% of their prewar level last week; according to the Washington Institute, 37 vessels were attacked in October, a record, and 10 since the start of November. Brent remains 21% below its October 30 high of $118.
• Channel and tipping points. Energy, inflation expectations, rates. Progress toward lifting the blockade would send Brent below $89.15 (Tuesday's low), hurting energy and helping rate-sensitive stocks; new attacks would push it above $93.60, with rates rising.

US–China: Nvidia, export controls and the APEC summit

• Latest development. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, has acknowledged an affair with a person suspected of spying for China; on Tuesday, the independent directors hired the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to investigate whether company secrets or national security were compromised, which the board says it has "no reason to believe." Senators Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) and Jim Banks (Republican) are pushing the AI Overwatch Act, which would allow Congress to block chip exports to China. Donald Trump is due to meet Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19.
• Indicator. Nvidia has lost 9.5% over two sessions and more than 25% since October 2.
• Channel and tipping points. Each percentage point of Nvidia is worth nearly 5 S&P 500 index points, and AMD, Micron and Broadcom together weigh 5% of the index. Tighter controls or a setback in Shenzhen would hit these stocks first; an incident-free summit and an investigation with no adverse findings before the November 17 results would extend the rebound.

Oil and commodities

• Brent (January): $92.69 at 12:51, +1.31% from the $91.49 settlement (−1.17% on Tuesday), between $91.48 and $93.60 since midnight; on Tuesday, it had dropped to $89.15. WTI (December): $86.65, +0.71%, settlement at $86.04.
• Drivers: attacks in Hormuz and Iran's denial of talks, against a 9 million barrel build in US crude inventories according to the API. Russian refining capacity has fallen about 30% since late October under Ukrainian strikes, according to industry sources cited by Reuters.
• Natural gas: $3.330 (+1.03%). Gold: $4,055.30 an ounce (+0.62%).
• Impact on the ES: the rebound supports the energy sector, the index's second-best sector on Tuesday, but keeps inflation expectations and rates elevated, which weigh on growth stocks.

Dollar and volatility

• FX: at 12:52, the DXY is up 0.28% at 102.52, EUR/USD is down 0.25% at 1.1140 and USD/JPY is up 0.25% at 159.11.
• VIX: 18.63 at 12:47 (−0.83 point), after a 19.46 close on Tuesday, versus 28.18 on November 5; the curve remains in contango (3-month VIX at 20.64) and the SKEW, at 151.12, elevated.
• Implied moves (Saxo): about 0.65% for the session (nearly 49 points) and 1.21% through Friday's PPI.
• Sentiment: a return of risk appetite concentrated in tech (NQ +1.87%, YM +0.22%). According to Saxo, the MOVE index of bond volatility jumped to 92.44: the stress is in rates, not in equities. A VIX above 19.46, then 21.61 (Tuesday's high), would signal renewed hedging; below 18.53 (today's low), it would confirm the easing.

What to watch in today's session

• 15:30, open: buy-side imbalance expected in Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Broadcom. S&P 500 reference levels: 7,543.92 (Tuesday's high), 7,549.94 (Monday's close) and 7,577.39 (Monday's high) above; 7,520.93 (Tuesday's close) and 7,470.43 (Tuesday's low) below. On the ES: 7,613 (overnight high), 7,574.25 (Monday's settlement), 7,547.50 (overnight low).
• Breadth: an RSP and a Russell 2000 following the NQ would confirm a broad rebound; a negative RSP with the NQ above +1.5% would signal a concentrated rally, exposed to any Nvidia headline.
• Liquidity: cash bond market and banks closed, volume likely thin; the rate signal runs through the 10-year note future (ZN, −0.16% this morning), where a move below 106 would reflect a further rise in yields. With no data and no Fed, the catalysts are Nvidia and Hormuz.
• After 22:00: Vylor reports, with no expected effect on the ES; futures trade in the electronic session until 23:00, then from the midnight reopen, ahead of Thursday's jobless claims at 14:30 (195,000 expected).

Morning tone: a rebond led by Nvidia and semiconductors after CoreWeave, reversing Tuesday's rotation with the bond market closed; Brent above $93.60, a VIX back above 19.46 or a sliding RSP would reduce it to a fragile, concentrated rally, while an RSP and a Russell 2000 following the NQ would broaden it.