Bond yields, Iran tensions and internet stocks lagging the Nasdaq

Macro & central banks

• A massive global sell-off in sovereign bonds is tightening financial conditions modestly in advanced economies, according to Capital Economics.
• Policy rates and borrowing costs for companies and households have risen sharply since July, accelerating after the US and Iran conflict broke out.
• Capital Economics argues this rise mainly reflects expectations of further rate hikes rather than an independent tightening mechanism. Central banks that were counting on higher yields to do the work may be disappointed.

Indices & tech

• The Nasdaq Composite is up 19% in 2026 and the S&P 500 is up 14%, yet the 19 large-cap internet stocks covered by Evercore ISI have fallen 18% on average.
• Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI cites six bearish factors, including stretched valuations after three years of gains and the risk of AI disruption weighing on terminal value.
• The same broker sees an attractive entry point, as the major hyperscalers could see free cash flow inflections within 3 to 12 months.
• Elon Musk says his companies could eventually make chips more efficiently than their rivals, while acknowledging they lack direct expertise today and that it could take several years. The project involves a facility in Grimes, Texas.

Energy & geopolitics

• Trump announced an immediate energy truce between Russia and Ukraine after several days of tension with Kyiv. According to the Financial Times, Washington has threatened to suspend key support mechanisms for Kyiv to force an end to strikes on refineries.
• The United States is also easing exports of sanctioned Russian diesel through a Treasury waiver. Trump says this eases pressure on energy markets, while the surge in diesel prices threatens to feed inflation.
• Tehran calls Washington's response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz insufficient and has suspended exchanges through Qatari mediators until seven points are clarified. Trump is considering new strikes after deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia's main international airport.
• Before the conflict, the strait carried one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

Europe

• Christian Sewing, CEO of Deutsche Bank, calls the rise of the AfD and Die Linke in recent regional elections a significant risk for Germany in the eyes of foreign investors.
• He urges Friedrich Merz's government to speed up reforms and loosen employment protections.
• Goldman Sachs sees a possible People's Party government in Spain after the November 29 election, with more market-friendly policies on nuclear power, renewables and data centres. Electrification would continue regardless of the outcome.

To watch today

• Whether the Russia Ukraine energy truce holds, and its effect on oil and diesel prices.
• Iran's response to Qatari mediators and any decision by the US on strikes against Tehran, a risk factor for energy and equity indices.
• Moves in sovereign yields and expectations of further rate hikes.