Wall Street mixed Monday as US bank earnings and the AI trade come into focus

Macro & central banks

• The IMF keeps its 2027 world growth forecast at 3.4% and raises its 2026 forecast to 3.1% (from 3.0% in July), helped by AI-related investment. It warns that the Middle East conflict and rising public debt threaten the outlook.
• The RBA's September minutes show every board member backed a 25 basis point hike to 4.60%, and further increases remain possible because inflation is still seen as too high.
• Brent jumped more than 4% on Thursday to get back above 104 USD, as the standoff between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continues.
• Trump says he does not believe Russia or China are helping Iran. Tehran is reviewing the latest US peace proposal, while reports suggest Washington could take new military action after the November elections.

Indices & tech

• On Monday the Dow Jones closed at 51,850.55 (+0.38%), supported by a composition less exposed to the big tech names. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807.24 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44% to 27,245.90.
• The session had no major macro catalyst: US bond, currency and rate markets were closed for Columbus Day, so moves mostly reflected position adjustments.
• Within the Dow, Salesforce (+2.09%) and Coca-Cola (+1.98%) led the gains, while Cisco (down 2.59%), Nvidia (down 1.29%) and Amazon (down 1.10%) weighed.
• At 08:48 on Tuesday, futures were mixed: Dow up 0.4%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.8%.
• LVMH sales came in below expectations, casting a shadow over the luxury sector.

European stocks

• TotalEnergies has rebounded 8.26% from its October 2 low of 73.45 EUR but remains below its September 28 record of 81.27 EUR. The group raised its fourth-quarter buyback to 2.5 billion dollars from 1.5 billion in the third quarter.
• OPmobility has lost about 24% over three sessions after a profit warning issued on October 7. It now targets a 2026 operating margin of 430 to 450 million EUR (versus about 500 million previously) and plans roughly 770 job cuts in Europe.

What to watch today

• Earnings from the big US banks, which will unofficially kick off the reporting season.
• Durability of the AI trade and the performance of tech heavyweights that drive the Nasdaq.
• Moves in Brent and the Iran file, including the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's response to the peace proposal.