SpaceX reports tonight as Fed hold and French yields near 5% loom

Macro & central banks

• The Fed is expected to keep its policy rate in a 3.75% to 4.00% range at its October 27 to 28 meeting, according to a Reuters poll (94 of 100 economists surveyed between October 16 and 20).
• All 100 economists expect a hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting, a sharp shift from the previous poll, where fewer than half forecast a December increase.
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% last week, its highest level in nearly three years (Freddie Mac). September housing starts fell 4.6% to an annualized 859,000 units, and builder sentiment in October dropped to its lowest level since June 2012.

US indices & tech

• At 9:17 a.m. Paris time, US futures were mixed: Dow Jones futures up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.2%. The previous session, the S&P 500 gained 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.11%.
• SpaceX reports its third-quarter results tonight after the US close, its second report since its June listing. Consensus calls for revenue of about 12.89 billion USD (versus 7.8 billion last quarter) and adjusted EPS of 0.14 USD. AI revenue, expected near 6.4 billion USD, could become the company's top source of income, ahead of Starlink. The stock fell 5.48% last week.
• Netflix and United Airlines are also on the earnings calendar. OpenAI is reportedly seeking to raise 30 billion USD ahead of the widely anticipated Anthropic IPO.

Europe & Paris

• The CAC 40 lost 1.11% on Monday, closing at 7,868.05 points, and is down 3.45% year to date.
• The French 10-year OAT yield is approaching 5%, days ahead of Moody's scheduled review of France's rating on Friday.
• Eleven CAC 40 companies report this week: EssilorLuxottica and Michelin on Tuesday, Carrefour and Bureau Veritas on Wednesday, L'Oréal, Hermès and Thales on Thursday, and Safran on Friday.

Geopolitics & energy

• Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday and met Benjamin Netanyahu, eight days before Israel's elections, amid discussions on a possible resumption of major military operations against Iran.
• A Houthi missile strike in Yemen killed 73 people, all new recruits, according to the AP.
• The conflict involving Iran is weighing on inflation through bond yields and energy prices.

What to watch today

• Tuesday after the US close: SpaceX results, with particular attention on AI revenue.
• Tuesday in Paris: EssilorLuxottica and Michelin.
• Friday: Moody's review of France's rating, and Safran results.
• October 27 and 28: Fed meeting, where no change is currently expected.