US Futures Tick Up as US Treasury Boosts Liquidity

Macro & Geopolitical Tensions

• US Treasury Bond Buybacks: The US Treasury doubled the scale of its long-term debt buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. This injection of liquidity weighed on bond yields and weakened the US dollar, offering support to risk assets including Bitcoin above $75,000.
• Escalating Sanctions on Iran: Washington is set to implement the "toughest sanctions in history" alongside an economic blockade against Iran. Full details will be presented on Monday by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• Energy Supply Pressure in Europe: High energy prices linked to the conflict in Iran are slowing replenishment efforts across Europe. Germany is struggling to meet its natural gas storage targets, with current levels at 50% capacity versus 76% at the same time last year.

US Indices & Corporate Earnings

• Futures Outlook: US index futures trade slightly higher on Friday morning, led by the Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.2%), benefiting from lower benchmark bond yields.
• Retail & Consumer Sector: Retail results highlight persistent pressure on consumer spending. Walmart plunged 9.15% following a US same-store sales growth reading of 2.6% (below the 3.7% forecast), weighed down by fuel costs and pharmaceutical pricing. Conversely, discount retailer Ross Stores raised its full-year earnings guidance.

What to Watch Today

• Economic Data: Upcoming release of flash US PMI survey data, key to assessing momentum across manufacturing and services sectors.
• Yield Dynamics: Price action in US Treasury yields following buyback operations and its immediate flow-through into index futures pricing.