Trading around the news (CPI, FOMC, NFP)

Macro data triggers volatility and spread widening. It does not trade like the rest of the day, and many accounts die on thirty seconds of a release.

Why the first move often lies

At the release, the book is empty: the first market order crosses ten levels. That move is not "the market's opinion", it is the reaction of a market without shock absorbers. The algos that read the number in a few milliseconds push, the stops on both sides blow, then the human players and the desks take positions over the following minutes. It is that second move, slower and carried by real volume, that is readable.