Card 2: the initial balance rejection on the 4 pm number

The second card uses the second salvo of numbers. At 4 pm, the initial balance is two thirds built, price is often near one of its edges, and an ISM or a consumer confidence gives it the impulse to test it. One time in two, the break re-enters: it is that half we trade.

The mechanism

The number lands. Price pushes beyond the IB edge, by 15 to 40 points, in one to three minutes. Two outcomes:

• Acceptance: price stays beyond, delta stays in the direction, the heatmap ahead is empty, the leaders follow. It is an IB extension, and the NQ course has the setups for continuation. Not this card.
• Rejection: at the end of the push, an offer (or a bid) absorbs, delta flips, price re-enters the IB within five minutes. The stops of the break's buyers are above; the return toward VWAP, then toward the IB's other edge, serves them one by one.