Rates, inflation and tech earnings set the agenda for October 28, 2026

Macro & central banks

• Fed: UBS now expects two more rate hikes by mid 2027, following the 25 basis point increase in September, in a context of hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh. In its base case, the bank sees the Fed resuming cuts at the end of 2027.
• RBNZ: the rate was held at 2.75% by a 4 to 3 vote, with three members pushing for a move to 3.00%. Markets had expected a 25 basis point hike. The New Zealand dollar fell 1.4% against the US dollar.
• RBA: Governor Michele Bullock said inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time. The board will debate next week whether four rate hikes have been enough to bring prices down.
• Bank of Thailand: the policy rate was held at 1.00% unanimously, with growth slowing to 1.9% year on year in the second quarter.
• United Kingdom: Chancellor John Healey ruled out broad tax increases and kept a 15 billion pound headroom, in line with market expectations. The conflict in Iran is weighing on energy prices and inflation.

Bonds & energy

• UBS says fixed income has become attractive again, with yields having risen sharply since the pandemic. Strains in French debt have widened the risk premium over German 10 year Bunds.
• Higher energy prices are fuelling concerns about more persistent inflation and reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Indices & tech

• At 10:02 on Wednesday, S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, and Dow futures slipped 0.2%.
• SK Hynix reported a sharp rise in quarterly operating profit.
• In Malaysia, advanced AI chips worth about 12.11 million dollars were seized at Kuala Lumpur airport, as part of an investigation into a suspected smuggling network linked to export controls aimed at keeping chips away from China.

Geopolitics

• In Israel, exit polls show Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar each winning between 50 and 51 seats, well short of the 61 seat majority. Turnout exceeded 77%, and the full count is expected to take several days.

What to watch today

• Alphabet and Microsoft earnings after the close, two heavyweights of the Nasdaq.
• The Fed decision and what it signals about the rate outlook.
• First official results of the Israeli election in the coming hours.