US Futures: Nasdaq Resists Amid Fed Rate Fears and Persian Gulf Tensions

Macro & central banks

• Fed rate hike fears: Investors are pricing in potential rate increases by the Federal Reserve next week, fueled by last week's stronger-than-expected US employment report and persistent inflation concerns.
• Hawkish stance from RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter warned that another rate hike may be required on September 29 if inflation (3.5% in July) remains sticky.

Indices & tech performance

• Divergence in US futures: Futures contracts are displaying contrasting trends. Dow Jones futures dropped 0.6% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, weighed down by rising energy prices. Conversely, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%, buoyed by underlying strength in tech megacaps.
• Semiconductor tailwinds: In Europe, AI-driven optimism linked to OpenAI developments continues to bolster technology shares, as seen in recent gains for Soitec (+11.7%) and STMicroelectronics (+4.1%).

Geopolitics & energy

• Persian Gulf tensions: Iran has threatened to establish a maritime exclusion zone in the Persian Gulf to counter US economic pressure. Coupled with Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia, supply concerns are putting upward pressure on crude prices.

What to watch today

• Crude oil and US Treasury yields: Monitoring energy prices and bond yields for signs of persistent inflationary pressure impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
• Post-holiday liquidity: Tracking order flow dynamics as US cash markets reopen following the Labor Day holiday break.