Futures Brief: Yield Pressure, Mixed Tech Earnings, and Geopolitical Risk

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

• Federal Reserve: NY Fed President John Williams attributed the rise in long-term bond yields to US economic strength and AI investment, while noting that tariffs and Middle East conflicts keep inflation above target.
• ECB: ING expects a 25 bps rate hike next week due to persistent energy-driven inflation (>3%), with UBS pointing out that rising long-term yields reflect higher policy rate expectations.
• Bank of Canada: Maintained its policy rate at 2.25%, balancing Q2 economic growth against trade tariffs and oil-related inflation risks.

Geopolitics & Energy

• Iran Conflict & Oil: Crude oil prices remain up nearly 30% since the onset of the war amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury is weighing expanded sanctions targeting aviation, maritime, and crypto assets.
• Canada: Extending fuel excise tax relief through early 2027 to mitigate spiking energy costs.

Tech & Earnings

• Dell Technologies: Surged over 9% in extended trading following strong Q2 FY2027 results (adjusted EPS of $7.04 vs $4.90 expected; revenue up 57.8% to $46.97B) and a guidance hike driven by AI server demand.
• MongoDB: Plunged nearly 14% post-market despite solid Q2 revenue growth (+30% to $771.8M), hit by profit-taking in a risk-off environment driven by higher yields.

To Watch Today

• United States: Release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and key economic data publications.
• Canada: Official government announcement regarding the fuel excise tax exemption extension.