115:05by viplad
Three scenarios for the US market open
Scenario A — Rotation within the lower value (status quo). As long as price trades between 28,560 and the overnight VWAP, the day remains a balance day: the play is to work the edges of the distribution back toward the 28,750 POC, without forcing anything in the belly of the profile. This is the market state as these lines are being written, and it's the default scenario until something breaks with acceptance. Watch the calendar: it's the third Friday of the month, monthly options expiration — mechanical unwind flows can artificially sustain the rotation and muddy the read on the auction.
Scenario B — Third leg lower. Acceptance below 28,560 — meaning a clean break-through, with selling aggression that consumes the floor without getting absorbed, and price holding below it — would open the door to continuation. The day's structural bias (price below POC and below VWAP) leans slightly toward this scenario, but with an important caveat: after two full days of bearish migration, the asymmetric risk is a short-covering squeeze, violent and fast. In this scenario, continuation should be played on pullbacks into the gaps left by the decline — never by chasing a break of a new low. Also worth noting: below 28,560, the recent map is blank; reference levels would need to come from prior weeks' profiles.
Scenario C — Repair toward the upside void. The technically richest scenario. A reclaim of the overnight VWAP that's "paid for" — meaning accompanied by cumulative delta rising alongside price, not a divergent squeeze — would put the market at the entrance of the thin transfer zone. An LVN works like a slide in both directions: the same lack of liquidity that accelerated the decline during the European morning would accelerate the move back up. Natural cascading targets: 29,100, then Thursday's VAL at 29,250, with the 29,330 naked POC as an extension. The entry condition is strict: no repair position while price trades below the overnight VWAP.
What will decide between the scenarios :
The profile tells you where; only the open's order flow will tell you who. Three reads to watch starting at 15:30: the quality of aggression on any return to the 28,560 low — this would be its first true retest, and the response (breakthrough or absorption) will likely be the richest information of the day; delta behavior on any approach to the overnight VWAP; and the absence of a signal, which is itself a signal — flat delta and rotations mean Scenario A, and an expiration day in balance is a day where the smallest position is often the best one.
This analysis is published for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to take any position. Trading futures contracts carries a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors.
