# ES stalls at 7780: acceptance or rejection below 7788

- Source: https://orderflowfutures.com/en/sessions/es/2026-10-28
- Site: OrderFlowFutures (https://orderflowfutures.com)
- Author: Tom, Trader & founder of OrderFlowFutures (https://orderflowfutures.com/a-propos#auteur)
- Published: 2026-10-28
- Updated: 2026-10-28
- Reuse: free to quote and cite, with attribution to OrderFlowFutures and a link to the source URL.

Instrument: ES (S&P 500 futures), CME

## Macro events

- 19:00 · Federal Funds Rate · forecast 4.00% : Précédent : 4.00%
- 19:00 · FOMC Statement
- 19:30 · FOMC Press Conference

## The read, step by step

### Read 1 : 17:58

**H4** · Wide range **7650–7890**. Price is bouncing from the **7651** low (Oct 24-25) with a series of higher lows. It is now stalling at the **7780** zone, the magenta line. Above, the Oct 22 swing high at **7812** remains resistance and the bullish target. **Moderately bullish** bias: the market is rotating back toward the top of the range.

![OrderFlowFutures](https://orderflowfutures.com/uploads/06d7c5f8-788f-4333-a260-719853e06619.webp)

### Read 2 : 17:58

**H1** · Tight **7752–7775** range since Oct 27, after the **7700→7745** rally. An upside breakout attempt is underway, with a wick up to **7788**, the day's high. The POC at **7763** acts as a magnet mid-range; the VAL at **7752** sits right on the day's low (**7751.5**). Further down, the **7718** H1 low and the Oct 27 swing low at **7700** are the deeper supports.

![OrderFlowFutures](https://orderflowfutures.com/uploads/78deb79b-f8db-4b16-b7a8-9c8b14f134fa.webp)

### Read 3 : 17:58

**M15** · Bullish compression: higher lows since **7751.5**. The last bar pierces **7778** but leaves a long upper wick at **7787**: possible excess, acceptance not confirmed. Breakout pivot at **7778–7781** (intraday ceiling and H4 line), with the VAH at **7774** just below as retest support. The M15 close relative to **7774** will decide.

![OrderFlowFutures](https://orderflowfutures.com/uploads/63e6e62e-f540-42a0-af99-7d34bed8c066.webp)

### Read 4 : 17:58

**Opening briefing**

**Pivot**: M15 close above or below **7774** (VAH).

- **Bullish**: acceptance above **7778** and a retest of **7774** that holds. Targets **7788** (day's high), then **7812** (H4 swing high).
- **Bearish**: rejection at **7787–7788** and a move back below **7774**, inside value. Rotation toward the **7763** POC, then **7752** (VAL and day's low). Below **7751.5**, next stops **7741** then **7718**.

**Where order flow matters most**
- **Long**: retest of **7774–7778** with seller absorption or stacked buy imbalances. Defense of **7752** as the second line.
- **Short**: failure at **7785–7788**: absorption, negative COT L, large buyers trapped under the wick.
- **Avoid**: **7760–7770**, mid-value. No edge, let it rotate.

The H4 context leans bullish, but the M15 wick at 7787 is a reminder that acceptance is not established yet: the retest of 7774 will show who controls the auction.

_Briefing generated by the order-flow assistant from the operator's H4/H1/M15 charts, reviewed before publication._