# Fed expected to hold Wednesday, Goldman sees another hike in December : Monday, October 26, 2026

- Source: https://orderflowfutures.com/en/news/2026-10-26
- Site: OrderFlowFutures (https://orderflowfutures.com)
- Edited by: Tom, Trader & founder of OrderFlowFutures (https://orderflowfutures.com/a-propos#auteur)
- Published: 2026-10-26
- Updated: 2026-10-26
- Reuse: free to quote and cite, with attribution to OrderFlowFutures and a link to the source URL.

> The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Kevin Warsh's press conference in focus. Goldman Sachs sees another hike in December, a tightening path index futures traders will need to factor into their scenarios.

## Macro & central banks
- Fed: rates are expected to stay unchanged on Wednesday, after the September hike, the first since 2023. Attention will focus on Kevin Warsh's press conference.
- Goldman Sachs: a pause in October, then a second hike in December, reflecting a compromise of one hike every two meetings. David Mericle says the tightening from the hawkish shift has been moderate, well below the four hikes the market had priced in.
- Key point: how the Fed words its statement on the September hike.
- Pakistan: policy rate raised by 50 bp to 12%, the first hike since April, as inflation runs above target and energy costs climb with the Gulf conflict.
- Brazil: Finance Minister Dario Durigan wants a higher primary surplus next year, without giving a figure. The central bank will intervene in FX markets if needed, after Brazilian markets fell following Lula's reelection.

## Indices & tech
- BofA Global Research: AI-related capital expenditure has risen 1.2% of GDP since Q1 2020, a faster pace at a comparable stage than the 1970s oil boom and the 2010s shale expansion. Only the 1990s tech cycle (around 1.5% of GDP) stands higher.
- Data centers: a Fed study estimates they added about 0.40 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2026, and they now account for nearly 46% of private office construction spending.
- Big tech earnings are due this week, which matters given the weight of megacaps in the Nasdaq.
- UK: Deutsche Bank expects Chancellor Healey to unveil a £20.4bn investment plan, well above its £8bn assumption, without breaching fiscal rules.

## Geopolitics
- Israel: a vote on Tuesday. Netanyahu's office denies reports of a possible escalation against Iran before the election.
- Russia: the Kremlin says the planned trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US will not restrict military operations. They are scheduled in several weeks, in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland.

## What to watch today
- Tuesday: Israeli vote.
- Wednesday: Fed decision followed by Kevin Warsh's press conference, plus the UK investment plan announcement.
- This week: major tech earnings and US economic releases.

*Brief compiled from the morning's news flow, AI-assisted and reviewed before publication. Not investment advice.*